I live in an area where the schools
have officially transitioned to distance learning for the remainder
of the school year in light of the steadily worsening Coronavirus
pandemic. The implications of this did not fully sink in until my
husband reminded me that the kids are here all day, every day for the
next five months. Furthermore, I suddenly became responsible for
ensuring they meet the requirements to complete their school year and
succeed in progressing to the next grade level. This is definitely
not what parenting was like several weeks ago, and I was feeling less
than prepared for the changes. For one thing, I did not keep anywhere
near enough school supplies on hand.
The moment that my new reality sank in,
our living room was covered from one end to the other in school
papers for the kids, their computers, my husband’s papers and
computer, and my papers and computer. It looked like someone had
haphazardly poured the contents of an office recycle bin across every
couch and table with plenty spilling over onto the floor. The peace I
normally feel in my home dissolved because disorganization feels
itchy and panicky. Apparently, I might be slightly neurotic.
Fortunately, my most useful mantra
happens to be “panic does not solve problems.” So, I closed my
eyes, took some deep breaths, and reminded myself to not panic. I
spent some time thinking about what my new schedule would look like
and tried to prioritize the needs. In this case, it was obvious that
the kids required some supplies for organization, so I immediately
ordered a supply of paper and file folders. It was amazing how much
better I felt just knowing the materials needed to bring order to
all that chaos were on the way. Moving step-wise through my new list
of tasks now seemed at least manageable.
For many of us, reality just drastically changed. Even for anyone whose days are mostly similar to what they were a month ago, there is an added component of uncertainty and the knowledge that the days could be upended very soon. This is not the type of situation people predict and prepare for well. Scientists have been saying for many years that there will be more pandemics, but our level of preparedness given this knowledge is marginal. I have taken many classes and been to numerous lectures about pandemics, and I am caught unprepared, too.
The learning curve on this is steep. We
are required to immediately adapt all of our planning, shopping,
cleaning, time management, and childcare to match the current health
crisis. Of course, there are plenty of complications, like supply
shortages and internet connections that are slower than usual. Not to
mention having a plan in the event you or a family member contracts
Coronavirus and becomes sick.
All you parents who are struggling and
feel like you are not getting things right, take a deep breath. Do
not panic. You are doing your best. Take the challenges one step at a
time. If you get it wrong, learn and try again. You have never been
here before, and you deserve some leeway for a mistake or two (or
three). Keeping your family healthy and fed in the midst of this
pandemic is more than enough. Maybe if we can move beyond the other
stresses and being stir-crazy, we can take some of this time to enjoy
a slower pace of life for a little while. Things will eventually get
back to being normal, and our kids will once again be over-scheduled.
For now, enjoy the extra rest and time with your family as much as
you can.
The Coronavirus pandemic is certainly
turning life upside down. In our household, the kids are home from
school indefinitely, my husband is teleworking full time, and we are
keeping our ventures out of the house to a minimum. My refereeing
responsibilities have more than doubled and will probably continue to
increase. It is always amazing to me how the kids are kind and
respectful with everyone in the world except each other. (Sadly, my
wardrobe lacks black and white stripes.) I am beyond grateful for the
schoolwork packets that keep them occupied and learning for a couple
of hours each day, giving me some time to do some writing.
Earlier this week, I read an article
about divorce rates spiking in China after couples were forced to
spend more time together. So far, I have no thoughts of killing my
husband, which seems promising. Even so, I am thinking about how
unusual and nice it is to have some extra time with my favorite
person and that this is something to appreciate. Soon enough, he will
be back to commuting and the house will seem very quiet.
Beyond all that is happening in my
personal world, the rest of life seems surreal right now. We are in
the midst of what could be a once-in-a-lifetime type of crisis. When
something like this happens, you see all of the extremes. Some are
panicking and hoarding. Others are going about life like everything
is perfectly normal. I feel like both panic and “head in the sand”
responses are counterproductive, and I try to find the informed,
rational approach. This can be quite an undertaking in our world of
abundant misinformation and changing information.
As it turns out, this particular situation is not so difficult for me. I write under a pen name to respect the privacy of the people I will be writing about: my husband and children in particular, but also extended family and friends. However, my real name includes some credentials, and my fields of expertise are microbiology and genetics. I am not a medical doctor, and will therefore not be providing medical advice, but I do know some things about pathogens like Coronavirus. So, I am going to write for the next few days about the questions I see people asking and the changing information from the scientific community that may seem confusing.
In answering questions, I will
sometimes refer to influenza because it is a virus most people are
familiar with and that causes pandemic disease periodically. I am in
no way suggesting this is just like seasonal flu, as you may have
read elsewhere. It is not, and I will describe some of the reasons
for that in answering questions. Keep in mind, we do have vaccines
and targeted antiviral medications to prevent, minimize, and treat
influenza. The novel Coronavirus currently does not have a vaccine or
treatment. Critically ill patients are treated to minimize their
symptoms and keep their body going while it fights, and hopefully
overcomes, the infection on its own.
Q: How bad is this going to get?
A: No one knows for certain. There are
many factors that determine how severe an outbreak of a new
infectious disease will be. Some of them are:
How easily it spreads from person to person
How frequently it kills an infected person
How long the virus can live in the environment
The incubation period
How long it takes for an infected person to become contagious
The way people respond to prevent spread of the disease
Q: How does Coronavirus spread?
A: There is evidence that this
Coronavirus spreads both by the respiratory route and by indirect
contact. That means the virus can spread if an infected person coughs
or sneezes and someone else inhales some of the droplets that contain
viruses. It can also spread if an infected person touches or sneezes
on an object and someone else touches the same object then rubs some
part of their face so that the virus can get into the eyes, mouth, or
nose. Since we obviously need to breathe, and we have a tendency to
touch our faces much more often than we realize, this virus does
spread quite easily. The current evidence suggests the average person
is more likely to get coronavirus than influenza, so this could
infect a very large number of people.
Q: What is the fatality rate, and
why is there so much uncertainty about it?
The fatality rate is a topic I have
seen discussed quite often and with a large amount of disagreeing and
changing information. The reported fatality rate for COVID-19 is
preliminary. A reliable rate won’t be calculated until the pandemic
has died down. In the meantime, health organizations track a
preliminary fatality rate because it can give us information about
the severity of the disease and the groups of people who are most at
risk of dying.
The preliminary fatality rate stands at about 1.4%, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). This will probably change in the coming weeks and months. It is true that fatality rate does tend to decrease as the disease spreads through the population, but the rate can also increase and there are a number of factors.
At the moment I am writing this, there are about 270,000 verified cases with about 102,000 either recovered or dead. That mean that there are about 168,000 cases that are ongoing. We don’t yet know how many of those will contribute to the fatality rate. Hopefully, that will be a small number. With so many unresolved cases, it leaves a lot of room for the fatality rate to change.
It is also true that the more severe
cases are usually reported while mild cases are under-reported. This
is the case for all diseases. For example, I have never tested
positive for influenza, but I am very certain I have had influenza
multiple times in my lifetime. So, the real fatality rates are pretty
much over-stated across the board. This is not some scientific
scandal, though. Scientists can only work with the numbers they have.
It would be impossible to accurately estimate how many people have
any kind of mild infection so that exact fatality rates can be
calculated. While not exact, having an idea of the severity of any
infection can give us an idea of what we are dealing with and the
best ways to minimize the impact of a disease.
Fatality rates can be different in
different groups of people. The initial fatality rates in China were
lower for Coronavirus, while the fatality rate in Italy is much
higher. No one knows precisely why yet, but it could be that the
first groups of people had a smaller percentage of individuals who
qualify for the high risk category. Another factor could be that
those individuals had a history of infection with other coronaviruses
and had some existing immunity because of it. Their immune systems
have been given at least a heads up instead of being caught off
guard. Whatever the real combination of factors, those infected early
in China experienced a lower fatality rate, and we have seen an
increase in that rate as it has spread across the globe.
In addition, viruses are notorious for
rapid mutation. Scientists have found evidence of at least two
distinct strains already, and there could be more as the epidemic
proceeds. There is no way to predict how fatal the various mutant
forms will be. Some will be more fatal and others less so. We see
this with influenza. The average fatality rate of seasonal flu is
about 0.1%. The Spanish flu from the 1918 pandemic had a fatality
rate around 2.5%.
The overall take home message here is
that even if the current rate of 1.4% is over-estimated, that number
is still cause for concern. Seasonal flu kills about 290,000 –
650,000 every year worldwide. If Coronavirus settles into a fatality
rate of just 1% and it infects a similar number of people, we could
be looking at worldwide deaths in the range of 3 to 6 million people.
Again, no one knows enough to say if this will or won’t happen. The
point is that the potential is there and should be taken seriously.
There are other questions, and I will
discuss more next time. In particular, as scientists are able to
investigate and gather more data, the information being reported is
changing. In the meantime, the World Health Organization (WHO) and
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) both have sites
for information about Coronavirus and guidance for managing your own
and others’ risk. The links below are for each of those sites:
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